Google is not going to leave any thing 🙂 here comes
There were manual labors who used to plough land then came the revolution in the form of tractor which efficiently replaced those labors. I see same scenario , data is everywhere like fallow land people those who are ploughing now manually will be efficiently replaced by tractor like revolutions which make normal analytics consultant obsolete…………………………Parthiban Gowthaman….
Normal Analytics consultant and conservatives thinkers will survive in short term but long term is always a question mark ? Both fat tail and long tail risk lies in it.
This book will change your perception like anything if you read it along when Google met wiki leaks….Who will be more powerful citizen or state? lol. Entrepreneurs will be fighting for their new ideas in digital world. The new age is arriving where monopolies in digital world will survive for long term ………..Digital worlds will see lot of world wars. Protectionism will be replaced by protectionism of citizens data. China is the only economy or nation who foresee all these things in prior
No one can deny Google is more than God
Economic Growth vis-à -vis Development: The Indian Experience.”
To what extent has there has been a qualitative improvement in the lives of Indians, given past economic performance?
If Akira Kurosawa is alive and if he wishes to take film on the Indian economic growth Vis a Vis development and to what extent has there been a qualitative improvement in the lives of Indians, given past economic performance. Kurosawa will perfectly tell the story in three different perspective one from the perspective of affluent who endorse trickledown theory, two from the perspective of middle class who always live in their dream to enter upper middle class if they are lower middle class or to the affluent zone if they are upper middle class, Three from the perspective of poor people who lives without per quarter meal in their own naïve world. Everyone who follows Indian economy knows how the Indian economy performed after liberalization in numbers. There is no doubt India has performed well but was the growth led to trickledown. Is the trickledown theory a successful model? Warren buffet not an Indian but belongs to the king of affluent zone confessed trickledown theory has not worked and will not work anymore. (1)
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Qualitative improvement in the lives of affluent Indian people
The percentage of affluent people in India is roughly around 10 crores (not sure) .We use to believe in a say that “Change is the only constant”. But in this context for this affluent people constant inflow of money is the only constant. So it’s explicit, that, whether it’s economic growth or not there life’s will be the super quality one. Whether it is a war, famine, drought or economic growth there will not be any change in their life. If we measure the quality of life as living in multi storey building or buying sports utility vehicle, acquiring hundreds or thousands of hectares of farm land for private or individual purpose .Then we can say loudly ,yes ,the economic growth has improved the lives of affluent Indian people when compared to past economic performance.
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Qualitative improvement in the lives of lower middle class and upper middle class people
The percentage of middle class in India is roughly around 40 crores (approximately). The people in this zone has benefited from the economic growth. Yes all the people those who work in the service oriented organizations has felt the bitter taste of exclusive economic growth which is not any way associated with healthy society. This middle class people play an important role in the Indian economy. Increase In their consumption style proves their way of living and their life style has changed when compared to past economic performance. If we have to understand, more about the improvement in the lives of this middle class people here is a caption, can Wal-Mart help build India’s middle class? [2] Wal-Mart eyes middle class people.
Is their Qualitative improvement in the lives of poor people?
The percentage of people living in this zone is around 70 crores. If we divide people into two category, that is above poverty line and below poverty line 52 crores people in India live their life with 2$ as per day income . I think dividing them and exploring their development is a bizarre thing. Because there is no development in the above poverty line zone itself then how there will in the below poverty line. Some of the developments (contrasting) in these zones are increase in farm suicide, unemployability, decrease in access to pure drinking water, no proper sanitation, no proper access to required life medicine. What improvement this economic growth has brought in the life of north east people, What improvement this economic growth has brought in the life of kashmiri, what improvement this economic growth has brought in the life of women vendor who sells fruit in scorching sun, what improvement this economic growth has brought in the life of daily labor, may be one more day or one more week employment opportunity but this employment opportunity is not going to change their life. They (majority) lead normal life or hunger life till their death.
There is a popular belief that growth will lead to the benefits of the human kind, larger the growth larger the benefit. But the truth is persons those who spark the fire will be awarded and rewarded but the persons those who are at the bottom and the person those who do not get an opportunity to spark a fire will always get exploited. Let the mainstream media celebrates India’s development. India’s development story partially covers 50 crores people it should also cover remaining 70 crores people too. Will it cover?
Citations:
1) http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/11/warren-buffett-trickle-down-theory-hasnt-worked-video.php
2) http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/america-the-gutted/walmart-india-middle-class
lets remove it
Lets remove MASK
From the history learning site
“Take hold of kettle, broom and pan,
Then you’ll surely get a man!
Shop and office leave alone, Your true life work lies at home.”
“In the Germanic nations there has never been anything else than equality of rights for women. Both sexes have their rights, their tasks, and these tasks were in the case of each equal in dignity and value, and therefore man and woman were on an equality.”
Hitler in 1935 (rhetoric speech)
But there was a completely contrasting situation in germany.
“The mission of women is to be beautiful and to bring children into the world. This is not at all as………unmodern as it sounds. The female bird pretties herself for her mate and hatches eggs for him. In exchange, the male takes care of gathering food, and stands guard and wards off the enemy.”
Joseph Goebbels, writing in 1929
In my perspective rewrite the history
so according to joseph goebbels if i get married or if i am a father of a girl i have to stand guards and wards off the enemy.Enemy is no one my fellow human being.so according to another guy i am his fellow human being who looks at me as enemy who can attack anytime.I have been molested many girls virtually ,in the sense by looking .Scratch every men you know his reality.I do not know how many guys who protesting there in streets are exempted to this but i am damn sure no one of them .Scratch them and see their original faces you know the reality.Change should happen there in the minds of man not on the streets in this matter.I am not an exemption i have been trying to trying to change my mind .Do you.
Predictive Analytics – Indian Government can Use Analytics to Reduce rape in Indian society
Posted: December 26, 2012 in UncategorizedLike a rapist who intentionally or unintentionally waits for his chance or like a home minister who waits for these noises to calm down, or a political party who make vote politics in this issue. I am waiting for a chance in Analytics Company not in the one who asks me to answer guesstimate or are you good in quant .Like a police who ask useless questions to rape victim. Neither am I victim nor the conservative .Following conservative things everywhere and expecting change will never bring change. As I was surfing through the World Wide Web to look out the future of Analytics I have been totally intercepted by these media people and some women organizations who demanded castration & death sentence. I know nothing will change whatever punishment you give. At that time I saw the below video from IBM who claims
The video is kind of funny and have insight too. It claims with the help of Analytics Police analyze crime data, spot patterns and figure out where to send patrols. Â Analytics is helping some U.S. cities cut serious crime by up to 30%.The one thing I admired in the above statement is they are mentioning that they reduced crimes by 30% if they had said above 50% Â I would have not been talking about this too you. What I inferred by exploring is we cannot predict future completely but we can give range that range will help to cut crimes in society or improve profit in business scenario by at least by 10%.
Let’s leave American context. They might be thinking about gun control. What I thought after looking the above video is why Indian government can’t use this. I am not saying we can reduce rape in society it is something complex but why can’t use the technology. We can do an experiment .Who knows may be the predictive model can give some information.
Some NGO or CSR Analytics company can start up this project for profit or nonprofit purpose. The choice is yours.
My commute to school was by walk,when ever i walked on the road side i saw  many soothsayers who assures everyone that they can predict their future.when i was child i was forced to believe it.
Now as a student of economics i use to see many gurus(in financial channels) who with some econometric models in their hand (similar to soothsayers parrot) assuring that market will behave like this at this time.I am not a child anymore.A recent article in Hindu with a title
Weather forecasting is like a science fiction.I feel to rewrite it Economic forecasting is a science fiction.
Example:RBI predicts gdp growth rate at 6.5 %,CRISIL predicts gdp growth rate at 5.5%,Imf predicts gdp growth rate at 6.9%(april when RBI said 7.5%),Some private credit rating predicts if you not open up market it will come down below 5%.
Every one is using separate model their unique one(like soothsayers parrot),every soothsayer will have their own parrot.populist comment prevailing in the society,has the weather forecaster predicted weather authentically any day?Recent monsoon prediction is an exemplary example.For weather forecasting they claiming that they can predict future weather with the information in hand.The same thing they claiming in econometrics and financial models that they can predict future with the given information in hand.
you can argue weather is a nature,ya if weather is a nature,nature created weather, so nature is rigging weather.But markets,financial markets are man made, man can rig it according to his wish when ever he needs, you can not predict that.If you still argue then the populist comment about weather forecaster will
turn towards you.
Just as eating cow-meat doesn’t turn you into a cow,
Studying philosophy doesn’t make you wiser,
Studying economics does not make you an economist.
As a student of economics at the end of course if someone ask me why did you study economics? What did they teach you in economics? Did they teach you any real time constraints? Did they teach you any social responsibility in the class room? Do you believe economics as a science? Etc
The fair answer I reply from my heart is I studied economics because I believe economics decide politics and politics decide culture. They taught me profit making ideology. No they did not teach me real time constraints. No how can I expect social responsibility where profit making is paramount ideology. I believe physics as a positive science & economics is not a positive science but normative science.
Recently in Greg mankiw class room a group of students walked out of class room giving him an open letter mentioning “Today, we are walking out of your class, Economics 10, in order to express our discontent with the bias inherent in this introductory economics course”. An economist must be a “mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher, in some degree.” So, promisingly, begins the sixth edition of “Macroeconomics” by Greg Mankiw, a key reading for  introductory economics class at many universities around the world. Unfortunately, the book, like the course that prescribed it, delivered on only one of those claims: to be a mathematician. Many professors teach that “economics is not only a social science, it is a genuine science. Like the physical sciences” and the financial crisis can be predicted by the formula
The formula looks alien to me and it has also failed to predict financial crisis.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb the author of black swan argues,
After the events that started in 2007 and the subsequent reactions by economists, anyone who takes the current economics establishment seriously needs to spend time in a sanatorium.
This does not mean we should write off the entire body of knowledge. By now, we can see what works and what does not work. Simply, a certain class of consequential rare events, what he has called “black swans,” are not predictable and their probabilities immeasurable, so anything that relies on a computation of the probability of these events should go out of the window. Now, such models induce fragilities and bring harm. We’re better off with no model than with a defective model, something people understand intuitively, but they tend to forget when they don’t have “skin in the game.” If you are a passenger on a plane and the pilot tells you he has a faulty map, you get off the plane; you don’t stay and say “well, there is nothing better.” But in economics, particularly finance, they keep teaching these models on grounds that “there is nothing better,” causing harmful risk-taking. Why? Because the professors don’t bear the harm of the models.
The good news is that those models that miss rare events also break down when one introduces a higher layer of uncertainty into them, called “parameter uncertainty”. This gives us a fault detection mechanism. What goes out of the window? The entire discipline of modern finance and portfolio theory (the theories named after Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Merton Miller), the model-based methods of Paul Samuelson, much of time series econometrics (which don’t appear to predict anything), along with papers and theories that are based on “optimization.” These bring fragility into the system. So, Nassim Nicholas Taleb simply says, we would have great jumps in knowledge if we avoided teaching these models, and replaced them with anything, even gardening classes.
But the broad principles of economics survive such expurgation. We should just ignore much of what has happened in the past half-century of trying to be too sophisticated with quantitative and probability-based models, ending up in dangerous pseudo-science. What you learn in economic classes are the models designed to monopolize profit.
Some of the above thoughts are borrowed from intellectuals those who got suppressed from the so called intellectuals.I am just a tool of dissemination.
parthiban.
Letter to siddhartan (honorary professor of madras school of economics)
Respected sir
Your article dated 14 june 2012 in THE HINDU.
Your article has raised some questions in me, which I would like to keep in front you.
We are living in a global empire where World Bank (international bank for restructuring and redevelopment), IMF, Credit rating agencies, all are the agent of global empire. So the governments who are in the shadow of global empire will react to the instructions. Indian government and policy makers are not exemption. Soon government will open up FDI in retail etc.
Sustained growth is not possible without a healthy and growing manufacturing sector, I agree, but there is a difference between sustained growth and inclusive growth. I am really skeptic that the reforms you recommended lead to inclusive growth.
There is a popular belief that growth will lead to the benefits of the human kind, larger the growth larger the benefit. But the truth is persons those who spark the fire will be awarded and rewarded but the persons those who are at the bottom will get exploited. I do not see your recommended reforms addressing people at the bottom.
//Real constraints//
There is a big gap in supply and demand of electricity in India. To bridge this gap government is consistently concentrating on nuclear power (even though it is dangerous and not environment friendly). What is the reason behind this? I agree government has not invested sufficiently in physical infrastructure which are the drivers of sustained growth but not inclusive.
//In this context it is important to note that corruption is also like the cost that pushes the cost-the only difference being the sums collected through bribes do not go to government but to private individuals.//
You have attributed corruption & scams for the present situation.
And you have given right reforms as the answer to get rid of present situation.
The government is nothing but the politicians (private individuals) who has the power to bring in reforms. I don’t see any reforms from these politicians which affect their kitty. They rhetorically worry about government kitty.
I personally felt this article as an advertisement to government to allocate stimulus package for manufacturing sector and to ease acquisition of land, by stating that increase in the manufacturing will lead to increase in employment (affirmatively).
Not as an article which talks about the reforms to attain inclusive growth in the economy, where measuring inclusive growth is human development index.
The article has concentrated on the manufacturing sector in the back drop of volatile IIP data.
When S& P downgraded Indian credit rating from stable to negative and cautioned for an immediate reforms to avoid downgrade.
I remembered the incident which happened in the school days. When my friend performance was not good (from 1 st rank he moved to 6 th rank).  My class teacher reported it to head of the school and in the parent’s teacher meeting, my friend parents were cautioned by the head of the school  that your son performance is decreasing if it continues, he don’t  get good college, if not good college he don’t  get good placement , if not good placement his life will be mundane. From the next day his parents had brought some reforms in him by pressuring him to study (rote learn), impact he had shown progress in the final exam got good college and good job but failed to become socially responsible person.
But the purpose of education is to make the mind to think with freedom. My friend has lost the freedom to think due to the guidance of the head of the institution and the reforms brought by his parents.
The reform by his parents has failed to bring inclusive growth in their son’s life.
Scenario of the nation:
Current account deficit, Fiscal deficit, Inflation, Decrease in foreign reserves, Global economic downturn, slow pace In GDP growth rate, political turmoil and Inequality.
Suggestions by s&P :
Deregulate diesel prices,
Cut subsidies for fertilizers,
Open up FDI in banking, insurance and retail.
As S&P points out the UPA 2 don’t have any other tools in his kitty to resolve these scenarios. The Reforms are certain in Indian context, but when, if UPA 2 brings reforms now damn sure it will lose election in 2014. If UPA don’t bring reforms then also its chances to win is less. If BJP or any third front wins then also there will be reforms.
India is gearing up for its second generation reforms with the same hope what it had in 1992. The India’s growth story was admiring after globalization but it’s not an inclusive growth mere GDP number doesn’t show the real happiness of the majority people. What’s the position of India in gross national happiness (GNH) and happy planet index?
If this continues we will never achieve inclusive growth, better we should wipe that word from communique and stop wrong propagating.
Lets welcome reforms with an answer it will not achieve inclusive growth.
how to define a woman,
hair lovers will define her by her hair,will conduct debate whether its natural or ….but… curly ,
forehead lovers will define her by her small,large forehead and the fold she gets in that forehead ,when she raises her eye brows ,lined one,
eye admirers will say, when she gaze at the things with that eye, things go out of gravitational force,
Nose, someone refers to some bird,even someone wants to breath their oxygen in her nose,not an infant,
lips,most of guys wants to kiss it ,someone stand away and admire her cute smile at the end of lips,someone wants lip marks somewhere,female presidents, literate one, might sign their lip marks in their pamphlets,
skin lovers want to wander in her skin,
many conservative and contemporary poets want to define her by her structure,
some one wants to define her by her breast,
where he took his first feed,
I do not want to compare her with any thing on the eve of women day ,
There are two type of woman,woman who do not face any humiliation in this society but celebrate women day ,talks about woman empowerment,Not even knowing what is happening on the other side ,There are some good ones in this side,
The other side ,still inside kitchen,under the oppression of men,still in flesh trade immediately after attending puberty,trafficking,rape,sexual murder,what ever she talk about independent,at some stage she become slave to mankind,Its not her fault,Its because of the ill superstitious religions ,caste system in this society.
How many religions ,how many castes,how many …many…many…i can not find any thing which says men should follow women.
As i can clearly see inequality here,even in celebrations too there is inequality,I hope certainly 75% of women in this country do not celebrate women day.Because they do not know what women day is, they are not in your side, they are in other side…………………………….Happy women day to that one side who celebrate women day………….I define woman as a confusion sorry sorry sorry women position in society is in confusion state.when i have the right to say woman as a confusion they too have the same right to say that i am totally confused……………………………………..happy women day to all those rich,literate,hard working women,who talks about women empowerment.
parthibangowthaman 